Press Release
21 September 2009
Pandemic Flu Q&A
Q&A with Dr Meirion Evans, Regional Epidemiologist at National Public Health Service Wales and Chair of FPH Health Protection Committee
Q. What developments are likely in the next few months?
A. The main development is likely to be a second pandemic wave of flu.
This is because we are now entering our normal flu season – the time of year when flu is transmitted most readily. The reasons for this are not fully understood, but we do know that the flu virus survives better in colder temperatures so this is an important contributory factor.
The latest indications are that the second wave will reach its peak in mid- to late October, though this may vary in different parts of the UK.
We also anticipate the arrival of the first batches of the pandemic flu vaccine, which will allow the pandemic flu immunisation programme to get underway.
Q. Are we prepared for the second wave?
A. Yes. We have learnt a lot from the first pandemic wave.
We know now that the clinical attack rate (the proportion of the population who get ill with flu) is likely to be no more than 15%. Rates will be highest in children and young adults since many older people appear to have immunity to swine flu.
We know that the rate of complications is relatively low but that around 1 in 100 cases of flu will need hospital care. Most at risk are people with pre-existing medical conditions such as chest disease, heart disease, or diabetes, pregnant women, and very young children.
Swine flu appears to be relatively mild and we anticipate a maximum case fatality rate of 1 in 1000 cases of flu. This is similar to that experienced with normal seasonal flu. However, in contrast to seasonal flu, a higher proportion of deaths will be in children and young people.
Q. Is the second wave likely to hit us harder than the
first one?
A. This is difficult to predict.
The second wave could be similar to the first or there could be as many as ten times more cases. Experience from the swine flu pandemic in the southern hemisphere (where they have just had their winter season) suggests we can expect a second wave with up to five times more cases than the first.
There is likely to be intense pressure over a period of around four weeks at the peak of the epidemic. There is particular concern about the anticipated level of demand for intensive care facilities and the health departments are taking action to try and address this.
Q. When will the vaccination be ready?
A. The first substantial batch of pandemic flu vaccine is due in October. There should
be sufficient vaccine supplies to immunise all the most vulnerable groups.
Q. Who will receive the vaccination and how do they get it?
A. The first priority for vaccination is those people who are most vulnerable to swine
flu.
This includes, in the following order:
- People aged six months to 65 years in the current seasonal flu vaccine clinical at-risk groups;
- All pregnant women;
- Household contacts of immuno-compromised people;
- People aged 65 years and over in the current seasonal flu vaccine clinical at-risk groups.
The vaccine will be available through the GP surgery. People will be invited to attend their surgery for vaccination, as the pandemic flu vaccine becomes available.
People who are normally offered the flu vaccine should also attend the surgery for a seasonal flu vaccination, though this may not be given at the same time.
Frontline health and social care workers will also be offered the vaccine at the same time as the first clinical ‘at risk’ groups. This is because they are at increased risk of catching infection, and can transmit infection to susceptible patients.
Q. How will FPH members support colleagues across the health sector?
A. Health protection services will continue to use surveillance data to monitor the flu
and to provide some advance warning of the progress and scale of the second wave, as well as advising
health departments on the most appropriate response.
Public health teams are also assisting primary care services to draw up plans for carrying out the pandemic flu vaccination programme.
Public health professionals provide advice about flu to a wide variety of people including members of the public and colleagues in health, education, and social services, particularly in relation to aspects of infection control.
FPH will support all those involved in responding to the pandemic flu, at national and local level.
ENDS
Notes to editors
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Swine Flu Hotline: 0800 1 513 513
-
Health Protection Agency
http://www.hpa.org.uk -
Department of Health
http://www.dh.gov.uk -
NHS Direct
http://www.nhs.uk/nhsdirect/ -
National Flu Service Website – with country-specific information
http://tinyurl.com/lnncqs -
World Health Organization
http://www.who.int -
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
http://ecdc.europa.eu
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